{"author":"BirkinBagStock research team","blockquote":{"heading":"What this does and doesn't show","items":["It shows net changes for the same tracked listings still active at our capture, rather than shifts in a constantly changing basket.","Flat endpoints can conceal intermediate changes; they cannot establish a completed sale.","Recorded dollar changes cannot, on their own, identify sellers' pricing decisions.","The share-price series excludes dividends; the asking-price series is not a measure of proceeds from selling bags.","Auction comparisons describe small groups of different bags, with important differences left unmatched."]},"canonical":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices","caveat":["Source currency is the label at capture, not a historical currency record; selecting USD does not certify unchanged currency or processing throughout the history.","Asking prices are advertisements, not completed sales. Disappearance does not identify a sale. Flat endpoints can conceal intermediate changes.","Different bags; condition, age, colour, hardware, taxes and shipping are unmatched. Interquartile ranges describe the spread of all-pairs ratios, not confidence intervals.","The equity and asking windows overlap closely but have different endpoints. These observations do not identify a causal relationship between the series. Captures are non-atomic and auction and asking captures are not simultaneous."],"charts":[{"after_paragraph":2,"alt":"Herm\u00e8s share closes and the median same-listing USD asking index, each shown relative to baseline.","caption":"USD asking median index 100; n=1,683\u2192938, 30 May\u201312 October 2026. Share closes: 29 May\u20139 October; each asking date uses the latest earlier stock close. The asking window starts one day later and ends three days later.","filename":"stock_vs_same_listing.png","height":1500,"width":1200},{"after_paragraph":4,"alt":"Net endpoint asking-price changes over thirty days, for all tracked USD-origin listings and size cuts.","caption":"Separate 30-day window, 12 September\u201312 October 2026: 93.4% unchanged, 6.0% lower and 0.7% higher among 1,359 matched USD-origin listings. Size cuts overlap the total; small categories are suppressed.","filename":"revisions_30d.png","height":1500,"width":1200},{"after_paragraph":8,"alt":"Commission-inclusive auction-to-asking ratios for eligible leather-family groups, including regular-leather Birkin 25s.","caption":"Regular-leather Birkin 25: 9 auction results / 903 current asks; median ratio 0.745, descriptive interquartile range 0.597\u20130.913. Buyer commission included; different bags.","filename":"realised_vs_asking.png","height":1500,"width":1200},{"after_paragraph":8,"alt":"Commission-inclusive auction-to-asking ratios for exact-leather groups, including Togo Birkin 25s.","caption":"Togo Birkin 25: 6 auction results / 662 current asks; median ratio 0.771, descriptive interquartile range 0.634\u20130.934. Buyer commission included; overlapping narrower cut.","filename":"realised_vs_asking_exact_premium_1.png","height":1500,"width":1200}],"citation":"BirkinBagStock research team. \u201cHerm\u00e8s shares fell 20.8%; median tracked USD Birkin asking index stayed flat.\u201d 2026. https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices","findings":[{"caveat":"Stock and asking windows start one day and end three days apart; they are not identical. Neither comparison establishes causal effects.","id":"shares","method":"Unadjusted Herm\u00e8s EUR closing prices from Euronext; dividends excluded.","n":null,"text":"Herm\u00e8s shares fell 20.8% between 29 May and 9 October 2026.","unit":"percent decline","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices#shares","value":20.8,"window":{"end":"2026-10-09","start":"2026-05-29"}},{"caveat":"Source currency is the label at capture, not a historical currency record; selecting USD does not certify unchanged currency or processing throughout the history. Asking prices are advertisements, not completed sales. Disappearance does not identify a sale. Flat endpoints can conceal intermediate changes.","id":"same_listing_median","method":"Each observed source-USD listing is indexed to its own baseline asking price; the median is taken among IDs present at baseline and on the observation date. The observed cohort varies over time.","n":{"final":938,"initial":1683},"text":"The median same-listing USD asking index stayed at 100 from 30 May to 12 October; n=1,683 initially and 938 finally.","unit":"index","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices#same_listing_median","value":100.0,"window":{"days":135,"end":"2026-10-12","start":"2026-05-30"}},{"caveat":"Asking prices are advertisements, not completed sales. Disappearance does not identify a sale. Flat endpoints can conceal intermediate changes. Rounded percentages may not sum to the whole.","id":"revisions_30d","method":"Same listing IDs observed at both endpoints and still available at capture; net change in recorded dollar asking price. USD origin is selected using the frozen current currency label.","n":1359,"text":"93.4% of 1,359 matched USD-origin listings ended unchanged over 30 days to 12 October; 6.0% ended lower and 0.7% higher.","unit":"percent of matched listings","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices#revisions_30d","value":{"higher_pct":0.6622516556291391,"lower_pct":5.960264900662252,"unchanged_pct":93.37748344370861},"window":{"days":30,"end":"2026-10-12","start":"2026-09-12"}},{"caveat":"Different bags; condition, age, colour, hardware, taxes and shipping are unmatched. Interquartile ranges describe the spread of all-pairs ratios, not confidence intervals.","id":"regular_birkin_25_ratio","method":"All pairs of realised prices including buyer's commission and current asks within the model, size and leather group; native amounts converted once using ECB reference rates. Groups overlap.","n":{"asking":903,"realised":9},"text":"Regular-leather Birkin 25: median realised-to-asking ratio 0.745; interquartile range 0.597\u20130.913; 9 auction results and 903 asks.","unit":"ratio","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices#regular_birkin_25_ratio","value":{"median":0.7446379592753033,"p25":0.5965652138431227,"p75":0.9134976901074415},"window":{"asking_capture":"2026-10-13T21:49:21.558174+00:00","auction_end":"2026-10-09","auction_start":"2026-10-06"}},{"caveat":"Different bags; condition, age, colour, hardware, taxes and shipping are unmatched. Interquartile ranges describe the spread of all-pairs ratios, not confidence intervals.","id":"togo_birkin_25_ratio","method":"All pairs of realised prices including buyer's commission and current asks within the model, size and leather group; native amounts converted once using ECB reference rates. Groups overlap.","n":{"asking":662,"realised":6},"text":"Togo Birkin 25: median realised-to-asking ratio 0.771; interquartile range 0.634\u20130.934; 6 auction results and 662 asks.","unit":"ratio","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices#togo_birkin_25_ratio","value":{"median":0.7710225756513551,"p25":0.6342921577362477,"p75":0.9344163336811883},"window":{"asking_capture":"2026-10-13T21:49:21.558174+00:00","auction_end":"2026-10-09","auction_start":"2026-10-06"}}],"lede":"Herm\u00e8s shares fell 20.8% between the closing prices on 29 May and 9 October 2026. Across the nearby 135-day span from 30 May to 12 October, the median asking-price index for the same tracked Birkin listings priced in US dollars at source stayed at 100. The asking window begins one day later and ends three days later than the stock window; these are closely overlapping periods, not identical dates.","method":["Each observed source-USD listing is indexed to its own baseline asking price; the median is taken among IDs present at baseline and on the observation date. The observed cohort varies over time.","Same listing IDs observed at both endpoints and still available at capture; net change in recorded dollar asking price. USD origin is selected using the frozen current currency label.","Unadjusted Herm\u00e8s EUR closing prices from Euronext; dividends excluded.","All pairs of realised prices including buyer's commission and current asks within the model, size and leather group; native amounts converted once using ECB reference rates. Groups overlap.","The method is deliberately brief. We use listings we track daily through 12 October, with active status checked at the 13 October capture; size cuts use current bag metadata. Stock closes come from [Euronext](https://live.euronext.com/en/ajax/AwlHistoricalPrice/getFullDownloadAjax/FR0000052292-XPAR?format=csv&decimal_separator=.&date_form=d%2Fm%2FY&adjusted=N&base100=N). We deduplicate the auction results we collect by house, sale and lot. Each published auction group requires at least 5 sold lots and 5 asks. For these comparisons only, we convert native amounts to dollars using [ECB reference rates](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist.zip), downloaded 14 October, on the sale or capture date, or the latest earlier published rate when necessary. The daily asking history remains as recorded in dollars."],"n":{"final":938,"initial":1683,"revision_30d":1359},"paragraphs":["The findings offer context for Herm\u00e8s' third-quarter results: revenue of \u20ac4.1 billion, up 4.3% at constant exchange rates (5.5% as published), according to the company's 22 October release. Our evidence concerns advertised prices and a limited set of auction sales. Those are different views of the market, each with its own blind spots.","A share price and an asking price answer different questions. The former records a trade in a listed company; the latter records what a seller advertises for an individual bag. A price that stays visible can coexist with negotiation, a long wait for a buyer or no sale. Persistence on the shelf cannot establish demand by itself.","The chart expresses each recorded asking price relative to its own baseline value, then takes the median among listings observed on both dates. Its USD cohort starts with 1,683 listings and ends with 938. The median stays at 100 across the observed series, but the listings observed change over time. This describes the tracked listings, not every Birkin or the proceeds from selling bags.","A separate 30-day comparison, 12 September\u201312 October, adds detail: 93.4% of 1,359 matched, still-active USD-origin listings ended at the same recorded asking price; 6.0% ended lower and 0.7% higher. Those percentages describe net endpoint changes in the shorter window, not the whole baseline period.","The flat majority deserves a closer look. Of the listings that ended at the same recorded price, 8 had changed during the window and subsequently returned. So \u201cunchanged\u201d means unchanged between the endpoints. It does not mean untouched throughout the month. Among listings ending lower, the median decline was 2.1%, with lower endpoints across 6 distinct resellers.","The currency restriction matters. Outside this USD cohort, 119 listings showed increases rounding to +32.34%, all with current native GBP currency. They represented 6.0% of 1,990 original matched listings across currencies. That repeated pattern does not identify its cause. Non-USD asks are converted at daily reference rates; changes mix price and currency moves. The frozen history does not identify the rate applied to each record. We therefore separate them from the main finding.","Current currency is the label at our capture, not a historical currency record. Selecting USD reduces direct exposure to currency conversion, but cannot establish that a listing used dollars throughout its history or rule out changes in the data record. A lower endpoint is not necessarily a seller's discount.","Auction results give another perspective. After including realised prices with the buyer's commission, 8 model, size and leather-family groups met our minimum sample requirement. Some also supported a narrower comparison by exact leather. These are overlapping cuts, so they should not be added together. Hammer prices and commission-inclusive prices remain separate throughout.","Consider regular-leather Birkin 25s. We compared 9 auction results from 6\u20139 October with 903 current asking prices. The median realised-to-asking ratio was 0.745, with an interquartile range of 0.597\u20130.913. Restricting the comparison to Togo leather gave 6 auction results and 662 asking prices, a median ratio of 0.771 and an interquartile range of 0.634\u20130.934. Both examples use realised prices including buyer's commission.","To read those ratios correctly, imagine comparing each auction result with every asking price in its group, then taking the middle ratio. We are not following the same physical bag from a reseller's shelf into an auction room. The interquartile range shows the spread of these comparisons, not statistical confidence in a universal market gap. The many combinations do not create more independent auction sales.","Matching size and leather narrows the question, but leaves condition, age, colour and hardware unresolved. Taxes and shipping are also unmatched, and a commission-inclusive auction result need not equal the final cost of getting a bag home. The figures therefore cannot establish a general discount available across the resale market.","The method is deliberately brief. We use listings we track daily through 12 October, with active status checked at the 13 October capture; size cuts use current bag metadata. Stock closes come from [Euronext](https://live.euronext.com/en/ajax/AwlHistoricalPrice/getFullDownloadAjax/FR0000052292-XPAR?format=csv&decimal_separator=.&date_form=d%2Fm%2FY&adjusted=N&base100=N). We deduplicate the auction results we collect by house, sale and lot. Each published auction group requires at least 5 sold lots and 5 asks. For these comparisons only, we convert native amounts to dollars using [ECB reference rates](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist.zip), downloaded 14 October, on the sale or capture date, or the latest earlier published rate when necessary. The daily asking history remains as recorded in dollars."],"published":true,"q3_revenue":"revenue of \u20ac4.1 billion, up 4.3% at constant exchange rates (5.5% as published), according to the company's 22 October release","quotes":[{"attribution":"Salom\u00e9 Pirson, commissaire-priseur, Maurice Auction","id":"maurice-auction-demand","language":"fr","original":"Les pi\u00e8ces iconiques comme les Birkin et Kelly restent tr\u00e8s recherch\u00e9es, mais nous constatons \u00e9galement un int\u00e9r\u00eat croissant pour les cr\u00e9ations rares et historiques, notamment celles de Martin Margiela pour Herm\u00e8s, qui ont obtenu des r\u00e9sultats remarquables lors de nos ventes.","question":"What draws buyers to Herm\u00e8s sales right now?","text":"Iconic pieces like the Birkin and Kelly remain highly sought after, but we are also seeing growing interest in rare and historic creations, notably Martin Margiela's designs for Herm\u00e8s, which have achieved remarkable results in our sales.","translated":true},{"attribution":"Salom\u00e9 Pirson, commissaire-priseur, Maurice Auction","id":"maurice-auction-gap","language":"fr","original":"Contrairement aux prix fix\u00e9s par les revendeurs, les ench\u00e8res refl\u00e8tent directement la demande des collectionneurs. La raret\u00e9, l'\u00e9tat et la provenance peuvent faire consid\u00e9rablement grimper les prix, parfois bien au-del\u00e0 des estimations et des prix du march\u00e9.","question":"What explains the gap between reseller asking prices and hammer prices?","text":"Unlike prices set by resellers, auctions directly reflect collector demand. Rarity, condition and provenance can push prices up considerably, sometimes far beyond estimates and market prices.","translated":true}],"source_snapshot":{"asking_capture":"2026-10-13T21:49:21.558174+00:00","asking_capture_finished":"2026-10-13T21:50:23.031913+00:00","auction_capture":"2026-10-14T05:08:36.392187+00:00","auction_capture_finished":"2026-10-14T05:08:40.253670+00:00","history_end":"2026-10-12","history_start":"2026-05-30"},"source_tables":"../v3/tables.json","source_tables_sha256":"e1db70b5e9db647a2e3469a922947e59de0596ede603956b516c1da9919ee8ef","sources":[{"name":"Euronext Herm\u00e8s historical closes","url":"https://live.euronext.com/en/ajax/AwlHistoricalPrice/getFullDownloadAjax/FR0000052292-XPAR?format=csv&decimal_separator=.&date_form=d%2Fm%2FY&adjusted=N&base100=N"},{"name":"ECB reference rates","url":"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-hist.zip"}],"title":"Herm\u00e8s shares fell 20.8%; median tracked USD Birkin asking index stayed flat","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-shares-vs-birkin-asking-prices","version":"3.1"}