{"findings":[{"caveat":"Changes in USD, without original price history or historical FX. The logger defaults to Birkin and does not store style; a mislabeled historical Kelly exists. Matching selects persistent listings, mixes resellers, and does not measure realized profitability. Coverage, additions, removals, and corrections alter the basket; the recorded number is not the market stock.","id":"repeat_listing_trend","method":"Join listing_id across two dates, calculate 100 \u00d7 (final price / initial price \u2212 1), and take the median of those individual changes; the daily basket uses all registered listings on each date.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"30":1798,"60":1445,"90":1266,"daily_basket_30d_end":3307,"daily_basket_30d_start":4281},"text":"The median individual asking-price changes for the same listing were 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% over 30, 60 and 90 days, with 1,798, 1,445 and 1,266 matched IDs. The 30-day basket median changed 6.5% and recorded coverage changed -22.8% across baskets of 4,281 and 3,307 IDs; these USD observations do not establish appreciation or market stock changes."},{"caveat":"The overall curve mixes leather, condition, color, year, hardware, and variants. Togo groups exclude special variants/HSS, but also do not adjust for remaining characteristics. Asking price does not equal realized price or a causal size premium.","id":"size_curve","method":"Medians and quartiles by model+size across all active priced bags, including special variants; additional Togo contrast within the standard subset.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"Birkin 25":1038,"Birkin 30":1330,"Birkin 35":762,"Kelly 25":739,"Kelly 28":764,"Kelly 32":543},"text":"Birkin 25 median asking is $32,000 versus $18,684 for Birkin 35, a 71.3% gap, with 1038 and 762 listing IDs. The smaller-size premium also appears within standard Togo, but these cohorts still differ in condition, colour and year."},{"caveat":"Matching spec does not mean an identical bag: color, condition, year, provenance, and services vary. Hardware is also inferred from the title. Dispersion reflects listings across resellers, without authentication or physical deduplication across sites.","id":"dispersion","method":"Select the five most numerous model+size+leather+hardware combinations; interpolated p10 and p90 per listing and spread 100\u00d7(p90/p10\u22121). Reseller median comparison restricted to n\u226515 per reseller within the spec.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"Birkin 25 togo gold":179,"Birkin 25 togo palladium":164,"Birkin 30 togo gold":191,"Birkin 30 togo palladium":161,"Birkin 35 togo palladium":120},"text":"Among the five most frequent model-size-leather-hardware cohorts, Birkin 35 Togo palladium asking prices run from $13,466 at the tenth percentile to $33,500 at the ninetieth, a 148.8% gap across 120 IDs. Matching those four fields does not make the bags identical in colour, condition or year."},{"caveat":"The mix of species, color, condition, year, and reseller varies. No adjustment is made for rarity or quality; the descriptive difference in asking price does not measure return or causal effect of the material. Unknown material is excluded.","id":"exotic_premium","method":"Within the standard subset, classify crocodile, alligator, ostrich, and lizard as exotic according to the normalized leather field; compare medians by model+size against identified regular leather.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"exotic":177,"regular_leather":676},"text":"Standard Birkin 25 exotic median asking is $85,850 versus $29,096 for regular leather, a 195.1% premium, with 177 and 676 IDs. Species, condition and colour are not held constant."},{"caveat":"Retirement \u2260 sale: it may indicate delisting or absence from the feed. The denominator does not reconstruct the historical universe: deletions, tracking rollout, and retained documents condition the result; it is not an estimated market survival rate. Kelly added in September lacks a mature 30-day cohort; its short ages among retired listings do not prove higher liquidity.","id":"retirement_proxy","method":"Cohort of retained bag documents with a valid price and created_at between 2026-08-09T06:18:21.107277+00:00 and 2026-09-02T11:31:08.261615+00:00; count stale_reason=source_missing_two_successful_runs and stale_at\u2212created_at\u226430 days, over all retained eligible additions, whether active or retired.","metric_type":"retirement_proxy","n":{"Birkin 25":{"eligible":155,"retired_within30":45},"Birkin 30":{"eligible":160,"retired_within30":44},"Birkin 35":{"eligible":103,"retired_within30":26}},"text":"In the retained-document mature-arrival cohort, 45 of 155 Birkin 25 IDs were retired within 30 days, or 29.0%. Retirement is not a sale, and document deletion and monitoring rollout limit this proxy."},{"caveat":"Share of BirkinBagStock coverage, not sales share or global market share. The same physical bag may appear in multiple listings; stated availability does not guarantee executable inventory.","id":"dealer_concentration","method":"Count active priced IDs by merchant_slug; divide the total of the top five by all active priced bag IDs in the snapshot.","metric_type":"asking_inventory","n":{"merchants":46,"top5":3684,"total":6988},"text":"The five largest covered dealers account for 52.7% of 6,988 priced active handbag IDs across 46 dealers. This is coverage concentration, not global market or sales share."},{"caveat":"Observed sample of multiple Herm\u00e8s models, not solely Birkin nor all auctions in the market. Auctionet predominates and one Drouot lot is included. Hammer excludes buyer's premium and other costs. Early years do not reach n\u226515; 2026 is partial. Ratios do not require FX and do not prove systematically low estimates.","id":"auction_years","method":"Join standalone lots and sales results_lots; exclude 22 audited titles unrelated to handbags/fakes/ambiguous items. Closing year; non-null hammer indicates sold. Sell-through = sold / offered; median of 100\u00d7hammer/estimate_low among sold lots with positive low estimate, always in the same native currency.","metric_type":"realised_hammer","n":{"all_years_offered":251,"all_years_sold":209,"latest_year_offered":111,"latest_year_ratio":90},"text":"In the observed 2026 Herm\u00e8s handbag auction sample, 90 of 111 lots sold and median realised hammer was 100.0% of the low estimate, with 90 ratios. This small partial-year multi-model sample excludes buyer fees and is not market-wide sell-through."},{"caveat":"Hardware inferred from titles, without physical verification. Color, condition, age, and resellers vary; does not represent a causal hardware premium.","id":"hardware","method":"Compare gold/palladium medians by size in standard Togo Birkin; use hardware field or explicit title cues. Exclude unknown or ambiguous hardware.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"gold":94,"palladium":120},"text":"Standard Birkin 35 Togo gold-hardware median asking is $21,500 versus $18,500 for palladium, a 16.2% gap, with 94 and 120 IDs. Condition, colour and dealer mix are not adjusted."},{"caveat":"There are 3,573 unknown colors among active priced IDs. Partial classifier coverage, condition, hardware, year, and reseller mix preclude attributing causality to color; not all shades are comparable.","id":"neutral_colours","method":"In standard Togo Birkin by size, neutrals = black/noir, gold, etoupe, and etain; brights = explicit colors recognized by the classifier. Compare medians between recognized groups, without assigning every non-neutral to bright.","metric_type":"asking","n":{"bright":46,"neutral":197},"text":"Recognised neutral Birkin 30 Togo median asking is $25,770 versus $22,681 for recognised bright colours, a 13.6% gap, with 197 and 46 IDs. Missing colour data and differences in condition and hardware limit the comparison."},{"caveat":"Specialized media outlet, not an official Herm\u00e8s source; benchmark predates the cutoff, before sales tax. Condition, age, and boutique access differ; does not demonstrate realizable profit.","id":"attributed_boutique_benchmark","method":"Divide the current standard Togo median by the benchmark published by the media outlet and subtract one; this is neither a transaction nor an active official quote.","metric_type":"asking_vs_reported_retail","n":{"Birkin 25":480,"Birkin 30":530},"text":"PurseBop\u2019s 2026-03-28 reported U.S. boutique benchmark implies a 114.8% gap to Birkin 25 Togo median asking (n=480). This specialist-media reference is not an official current Herm\u00e8s quote or realised profit."}],"metadata":{"active_dealers":46,"active_priced_handbag_ids":6988,"atomic_snapshot":false,"chart_files":["charts/size_curve.png","charts/currency_gap.png","charts/trend.png","charts/dealer_auction_coverage.png"],"currencies":"Asking amounts in stored USD; auction hammer/low ratios in matching native currencies","cutoff":"2026-10-02T11:31:08.261615+00:00","evidence":"tables.json contains cohort membership IDs; source_manifest.json contains acquisition checksum","languages":["en","es","fr"],"read_finished_at":"2026-10-02T11:31:20.642588+00:00","source_project":"birkinbagstock-prod","universe":"Covered listing IDs; not authenticated unique physical bags or the entire market"},"note":"Asking prices are reseller list prices, not completed sales. Independent, not affiliated with Herm\u00e8s.","title":"Herm\u00e8s Resale Report \u2014 October 2026","url":"https://birkinbagstock.com/reports/hermes-resale-october-2026"}